So long as people hold onto the expectation that recovery could be brought about by fiscal measures, no national consensus can be built to proceed with the painful disposition of nonperforming assets. It is necessary to learn by firsthand experience that fiscal measures are only makeshift. In this context, the enormous fiscal deficit that will be built up in the US in the coming months may be the political cost for consensus building, which would be a replay of what Japan went through in the 1990s. [emphasis added]The above quote is from Keiichiro Kobayashi, Senior Fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. The quote appeared in Will Ignoring Past Mistakes Result in a 20-Year Bear Market? by an unnamed author in Seeking Alpha. It is a nice summary of why present policies cannot work and why we will likely end up with a Japan-like lost decade or two.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
The fact that a free-market economy is resilient
As discussed rather simply in Econ 301 – Clunker Economics
macroeconomics rests on a false premise. Despite its fundamental flaw,
it is a wonderful political tool in two ways. First, it provides the
intellectual cover for politicians to do what they want to do — spend
more money. Second, it provides political cover in the sense that it can
be claimed that “we have taken massive ‘corrective’ actions to cure the
problem(s).” The fact that a free-market economy is resilient and
self-healing enables the scheme to appear to be valid. In that sense, it
is almost a perfect scam. Like witch doctors who claim to heal their
patients when the mere passage of time is responsible for the cure or
the rooster who thinks his crowing brings the sun up, the government
takes credit for something that occurred quite naturally. (They never
think that the problem might have been caused by their prior actions.)
Unfortunately sometimes the well-intentioned witch doctor kills an
otherwise healthy patient. We may be at just such a moment in history
regarding the current economic crisis.
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