Peter Schiff adamantly recommends getting out of the dollar. His
presentation, if correct, will be devastating for this country and wipe
out the wealth of the middle class. All of what he says is correct,
although his timing may be off. Furthermore, there is the possibility
that our government might change course, although I, like Schiff, feel
that unlikely. His recommendation to own “real stuff” is correct. If the
stock market goes up, I doubt whether it will keep pace with inflation.
The best performing stock market in the world in recent years has been
Zimbabwe, but it did not keep pace with their inflation.
So, what to do? If as some believe that the dollar will decline by
50% from here over the next 10 years, then having your funds outside the
dollar (in other currencies) would presumably produce a 7% average
return per year. Investing in foreign stocks would provide that 7% plus
the returns (or losses) obtained in foreign stock markets. Precious
metals, as money substitutes, should do well. So should natural
resources and other hard assets like land. Foreign resource stocks might
do especially well.
None of this is meant to be investment advice. If what Schiff (and I)
fear comes true, some of the above might be reasonable
investments/hedges. On the other hand, all of the above comments would
be 180 degrees wrong if we were to end up in deflation instead of
inflation.
Schiff was very emotional, practically begging people to get out of
the dollar. I suspect the economy and markets over the next year or two
will justify his emotion. Whether his scenario results or not, is the
more difficult issue.
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